But that&singlequot;s not necessarily something the analysts will tell you, even though their predictions paint a noticeably less rosy picture of the potential for the wireless Web these days than they did a year ago. Consider this recent prediction from the Yankee Group, for example: "Although the Yankee Group is optimistic about the future for mobile commerce, we are also cautious, as there are significant changes in wireless technology, payments and consumer behavior that must occur for mobile commerce to realize its full potential." Most "m-commerce" studies issued during the first half of this year echo that same cautiously optimistic sentiment.

However less sanguine today&singlequot;s studies of m-commerce&singlequot;s future may be, the premise on which m-commerce predictions are built--namely that once mobile and Internet technologies successfully converge, people will shift their PC surfing to handheld devices--remains the same. And that premise is severely flawed.

To understand how we all got it in our heads that the growth of wireless devices would soon spell a new Internet revolution, let&singlequot;s take a short trip back to the heady days of 1999, when the Economist issued a glowing survey of the mobile telecom industry. "The sheer rapidity of the spread of mobile phones would be enough to explain why wireless is the most exciting area of the telecommunications industry. Add to this the birth of the wireless Internet, this survey will argue, and you have the making of a new telecommunications revolution."

In other words, because mobile phone adoption was spreading like mad at the same time the Internet was becoming wildly popular, then it necessarily followed that once these two technologies converged, everyone would shift the work they did on desktop PCs to mobile units. "Many people will prefer to get on to the information superhighway via mobiles rather than personal computers, if only to do away with the palaver of logging on, let alone finding a desk and a telephone jack," the Economist declared.

This sentiment continued straight through the first half of 2000, bolstered by impressive quantitative analyses being issued by the most reputable of firms. "Today, Internet sites have to be retro-fitted for wireless users, but three years from now, it is conceivable they might have to be redesigned for wired users," an IDC analyst boldly claimed in April 2000 upon announcing the results of a new study indicating that wireless Internet users will likely outnumber wired users by the end of 2002. When I tried to get in touch with the analyst who wrote this report to ask if he stood by his predications, I was informed that he&singlequot;s no longer with IDC.

Arguments like these sound hauntingly familiar to ones that claimed the world would become paperless thanks to the Internet and that telecommuting would render office space an obsolete relic of the 20th century. For m-commerce, it&singlequot;s easy to take a short leap of logic to say that:

1. The Internet is popular;

2. Wireless devices are popular;

3. The wireless Web is being developed;

Thus, the wireless Web will be popular.

Yet, the messy issue of usability is left out of this otherwise logical equation. Who wants to use a telephone keypad--or even the idiosyncratic Palm OS "handwriting" system--to order a book online? Not me, I&singlequot;ll stick with my PC for a while longer.

But don&singlequot;t take my word for it. Consider the results of this study published by InformationWeek in June: "The importance of mobile or wireless e-commerce dropped slightly in the last six months from 18% of sites seeing a major contribution to their e-business revenue in December 2000, compared with 13% in June 2001, according to the E-Business Agenda Study." And this study says nothing of the risk of cannibalizing already anemic online sales.

And yet, as an e-business you cannot ignore the fact that soon, as IDC predicted, the number of subscribers with Internet-enabled phones will in all likelihood surpass wired users. The $64,000 question then becomes, "How can my e-business capture some of that enormous market share?" The key is to think beyond the PC-based Web. Don&singlequot;t think in terms of browsers and buttons and richer graphics. Think in terms of connectivity. You have the opportunity to link directly with your customers when they are on the run, away from their desks. Think about how you would treat your customers differently if you faced them in a taxi, in an airport or at the beach, rather than in a store or in their offices.

In the end, harnessing the vast wireless "potential" that analysts consistently refer to will require some wildly creative thinking (literally) outside the box.